Funds Reports
Global Crypto Fund: November 2024 Report
"Volatility is the price of admission. The prize inside are superior long-term returns. You have to pay the price to get the returns", Morgan Housel.
In November 3CC Global Crypto Fund delivered +40,97%, benefitting from the optimism floated by the new US political set up. The combination of less regulation and more technology will set the scene for an environment less friendly for the incumbents and more friendly to challengers. And that's good for Crypto, certainly. The list of appointments for executive roles in the next Trump Administration is quite encouraging that the next 4 years will represent a huge leap in crypto assets adoption.
Bitcoin had one of its best months ever and so the broader market. We have said before that Global Crypto will never invest in the fringes of the crypto market or in projects we don't deeply understand. So, the geometric growth of the crypto market in November was not a perfect environment for us. We lost 3,26% of alpha to the bench due to an astonishing 276% and 220% growth of XRP and Cardano. respectively. Crazy, right? Well, we expect mean reversion will bring it back home.
But not for Bitcoin, which is now the 6º largest asset by market cap, with a market capitalization of $2T, and it is difficult now to argue that it is a Ponzi scheme. Better said, it is as Ponzi scheme as Gold is, but with a better look, often less Ponzi than the fractional reserves that grounds our financial system. And the look will turn brighter as Bitcoin Act flourish and is replicated in other pastures. Brazilians are running the race in that particular. But this is just the beginning, the odds for that happening are still low. Let's monitor it though. Strange things may happen.
I often get asked where the price of Bitcoin can go? I always say, higher. Let's do a simple exercise. Bitcoin is a store of value like Gold. Gold market cap is $17.5T, around $14T excluding jewelry. Can Bitcoin get 50% of the market cap of Gold (just to keep expectations low, let's assume you're not a strong believer)? Humm...most likely right? That puts the price at $350k. It's not bad. Let's assume it can go also lower, like 70%. Still, very good negative risk reward asymmetry, statistically speaking.
Why does Bitcoin look so good? Just maybe, 91X growth of money supply in the US since 1971 sounds excessive and someone wants an insurance policy.
For the record:
Month Report GCF - November 2024
In November 3CC Global Crypto Fund delivered +40,97%, benefitting from the optimism floated by the new US political set up. The combination of less regulation and more technology will set the scene for an environment less friendly for the incumbents and more friendly to challengers. And that's good for Crypto, certainly. The list of appointments for executive roles in the next Trump Administration is quite encouraging that the next 4 years will represent a huge leap in crypto assets adoption.
Bitcoin had one of its best months ever and so the broader market. We have said before that Global Crypto will never invest in the fringes of the crypto market or in projects we don't deeply understand. So, the geometric growth of the crypto market in November was not a perfect environment for us. We lost 3,26% of alpha to the bench due to an astonishing 276% and 220% growth of XRP and Cardano. respectively. Crazy, right? Well, we expect mean reversion will bring it back home.
But not for Bitcoin, which is now the 6º largest asset by market cap, with a market capitalization of $2T, and it is difficult now to argue that it is a Ponzi scheme. Better said, it is as Ponzi scheme as Gold is, but with a better look, often less Ponzi than the fractional reserves that grounds our financial system. And the look will turn brighter as Bitcoin Act flourish and is replicated in other pastures. Brazilians are running the race in that particular. But this is just the beginning, the odds for that happening are still low. Let's monitor it though. Strange things may happen.
I often get asked where the price of Bitcoin can go? I always say, higher. Let's do a simple exercise. Bitcoin is a store of value like Gold. Gold market cap is $17.5T, around $14T excluding jewelry. Can Bitcoin get 50% of the market cap of Gold (just to keep expectations low, let's assume you're not a strong believer)? Humm...most likely right? That puts the price at $350k. It's not bad. Let's assume it can go also lower, like 70%. Still, very good negative risk reward asymmetry, statistically speaking.
Why does Bitcoin look so good? Just maybe, 91X growth of money supply in the US since 1971 sounds excessive and someone wants an insurance policy.
For the record:
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/11/11/the-us-government-is-one-step-closer-to-holding-1-million-bitcoins/
- https://blockworks.co/news/brazil-bill-for-national-bitcoin-reserve
Month Report GCF - November 2024
 |
Nuno Serafim
Managing Partner
|
Nuno is an experienced financial executive with broad experience in the Asset Management industry, being board member of IMGA, where he served as Chief investment Officer, overseeing €3.4B of AuM before he founded 3 Comma Capital, together with Robert and Patrick Hable in 2022.
