Funds Reports
Global Crypto Fund: February 2025 Report
Welcome to the 3CC Global Crypto Fund February Report, available for download below.
Hey all,
Could crypto assets be the canary in the coal mine?
In February, the 3CC Global Crypto Fund declined 22.94%, driven by a global risk-off sentiment that impacted both tech stocks and crypto assets.
Bitcoin’s recent movement has been nothing more than a risk-adjusted correction, broadly in line with the Magnificent 7. This reaction stems from tariffs, fiscal restrictions imposed by DOGE, and a U-turn in international policy by the Trump administration, which has increasingly challenged U.S. exceptionalism — a key factor that has supported the greenback and the U.S. economy for decades. These shifts promise indeed to reshape the global order.
Given their inherent volatility, crypto assets often move faster and ahead of other asset classes. Like a "canary in the coal mine," this may signal that the U.S. economy is heading for a recession, rather than reflecting a crypto-specific issue. In fact, from a structural perspective, the crypto industry remains fundamentally strong.
As a macro asset class, we cannot expect much different behaviour by Bitcoin in a risk-off movement. Also, most of the exciting news from the space has already played out: we have ETFs, we have crypto-friendly people in key roles in agencies and regulators, we have legislation being produced, and even, in a very fragmented way, a discussion on a national Bitcoin reserve getting traction. On this subject, we need to say that we are strong believers that a crypto reserve should be mainly a Bitcoin reserve, eventually a Bitcoin and Ether. But everything beyond that seems unrealistic and lacks credibility. So, we may say that there is a lack of triggers for a new leg up for now.
Looking ahead, we see a real possibility of intensified recession fears, which could drag risk assets down further, although we can see some support in the following days since we approach the 10% correction zone for S&P500, which could work as a first entry point for some investors. However, Bitcoin is likely to bottom before equities. The market must first adjust, and before we enter a recovery phase, we need to see one or more of the following:
- A reversal of DOGE’s fiscal tightening (potentially removing $2 trillion from the economy, or 6% of GDP)
- A more aggressive Fed rate-cut signal, or
- A sharp selloff in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, pulling global equities lower. Despite short-term headwinds, we still expect Bitcoin to trade above $100K by year-end. For now, we are defensive, running 10% cash and 72% Bitcoin allocation.
Thank you for your trust
Nuno Serafim
Month Report GCF - February 2025
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Nuno Serafim
Managing Partner
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Nuno is an experienced financial executive with broad experience in the Asset Management industry, being board member of IMGA, where he served as Chief investment Officer, overseeing €3.4B of AuM before he founded 3 Comma Capital, together with Robert and Patrick Hable in 2022.
