Funds Reports
Portugal Golden Income Fund - May 2025 Report
Welcome to the Portugal Golden Income Fund May Report, available for download below.
Hi all,
In May, the PGI Fund rose 2.31%, supported by a broad-based "risk-on" rally, one of the most remarkable short-term recoveries in recent market history. As in April, performance was driven by strong returns from Bitcoin (+11%), Global Equities (+5.98%), and Corporate Bonds (+0.48%). On the negative side, Gold was slightly down in USD terms but marginally positive in Euros. Meanwhile, the USD gained 0.3% against the Euro, partially reversing its more than 8% decline over the past six months.
Markets remain highly volatile, largely due to the unpredictable and at times erratic US trade policy. The "on-again, off-again" tariff narrative has raised risk premiums and pushed long-term US Treasury yields above 4.5% in mid-May. Amid this intense noise, markets appear to be trading off short-term headlines, as policy continues to be shaped in public view.
Our exposure to Bitcoin (7%) was the top contributor this month, adding 117bps. Our equity allocation (17%) contributed 109bps, and Portuguese corporate bonds added 32bps. Gold (4%) was essentially flat. Toward the end of May, we introduced a new risk premium to the Fund: MSCI Emerging Markets ex-China, aimed at capturing potential gains from continued USD weakness, typically a tailwind for emerging economies.
Corporate earnings remain broadly solid, and the “Magnificent 7” staged a strong rebound after three consecutive months of declines. We expect volatility to persist, especially as the pause in US tariffs is set to expire in early July. As such, we are maintaining a 5–10% cash position, ready to be deployed if markets turn lower.
Our Portuguese corporate bond exposure is now close to the Fund’s minimum (65%), as we prefer to preserve cash optionality in case of further corrections.
Best regards,
Nuno Serafim
Month Report PGI - May 2025
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Nuno Serafim
Managing Partner
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Nuno is an experienced financial executive with broad experience in the Asset Management industry, being board member of IMGA, where he served as Chief investment Officer, overseeing €3.4B of AuM before he founded 3 Comma Capital, together with Robert and Patrick Hable in 2022.
