Funds Reports
Portugal Golden Income Fund - June 2025 Report
Welcome to the Portugal Golden Income Fund June Report, available for download below.
Hi all,
The fund closed the month nearly flat at -0.01%, bringing total return since inception to +4.6%. Solid credit performance, especially in financials and energy, was offset by currency headwinds as the euro surged over 3% against the USD. Although S&P500 (+4,96%), Gold (+1,19%) and Bitcoin (+2,7%) - all USD denominated assets - have delivered a solid performance in June, in euro terms, only US Equities were able to provide positive return to the PGI (+0,1%).
The first half of 2025 was marked by a true rollacoaster. From the "goldilocks" of January to the "wall of worry" of April, we are now at all time highs in most risk assets. However, for euro-based investors, the local currency returns of global assets have been underwhelming due to poor performance of the US dollar.
In PGI, we strive for diversification, but full detachment from USD exposure is neither feasible nor desirable. In Q2, our direct and indirect USD exposure averaged around 20%, down from roughly 30% in Q1. With the greenback down 13% year to date against the euro, this currency drag has shaved off approximately 3% from the fund's performance in 2025.
Although we are still fundamentally negative in the USD and we may see the eur/usd exchange rate at 1,25 until the end of the year, we also believe in a mean reversion of the USD in the next couple of months, which can underpin risk assets like Bitcoin. We are now ready to increase Bitcoin close to 10% of the Fund again, since we believe in a summer rally in the crypto space and a more subdued Gold performance in the near term.
Below are the key highlights from June:
Credit Outperformance: Fixed income added +36bps, led by Fidelidade, Novo Banco, REN, and BCP.
Novo Banco Sale: Valued at €6.4B, the sale to France’s BPCE Group materially strengthens the bank’s credit profile.
Currency Drag: Strong euro erased gains; Bitcoin, and gold all detracted despite positive performance in USD.
Gold Shift: Central banks continue accumulating gold; global reserves hit 23%, USD share fell to a 30-year low at 45%.
Macro Tailwinds: Fed’s move to ease SLR rules could unlock $200B+ in credit, boosting liquidity for H2 2025.
We maintain a cautiously constructive view on risk assets, mostly Bitcoin and a continued conviction that the AI narrative, mostly US centric, will come back strongly.
Best regards,
Nuno Serafim
Month Report PGI - June 2025
 |
Nuno Serafim
Managing Partner
|
Nuno is an experienced financial executive with broad experience in the Asset Management industry, being board member of IMGA, where he served as Chief investment Officer, overseeing €3.4B of AuM before he founded 3 Comma Capital, together with Robert and Patrick Hable in 2022.
