Funds Reports
Portugal Golden Income Fund - April 2025 Report
Welcome to the Portugal Golden Income Fund April Report, available for download below.
Hi all,
In April, the PGI Fund rose 0.51%, amid sharp volatility driven by new U.S. trade tariffs on imported goods. Performance was supported by the rise of Bitcoin (+14%), Corporate Bonds (0.61%), and EU equities. On the negative side, S&P500, ended down 0.76%, recovering from an 8% mid-month drop. The US dollar was the biggest loser, falling over 5% in one of its worst months on record.
Someone once, not too long ago, called tariffs “the most beautiful word in the English language,” but markets disagreed. Risk assets have suffered since tariff talk began. Like any choice, tackling the trade deficit comes with costs. Over the past 20 years, the deficit helped drive stronger U.S. growth, as businesses moved up the value chain, reflected in equity market performance. Ironically, reducing the deficit may require slower growth. Is that a price the U.S. is willing to pay?
We don't think so.
We used April’s volatility to raise our equity allocation to 17% and may increase it further. While our capital preservation approach keeps us from going all-in, especially in this macro environment, we’re ready to take advantage of market pullbacks. We expect the Fed to deliver three rate cuts this year, with the U.S. budget deficit running at 7–8% of GDP. That’s bullish for equities and credit, and bearish for Treasuries, as stocks benefit from nominal growth and deficit-driven liquidity.
We’re also well-positioned for a rebound, with Bitcoin pushing toward new highs. Its appeal as an alternative to fiat assets like the dollar is only growing amid rising uncertainty and fading confidence in U.S. leadership. In this environment, what else can outperform?
PGI is up over 5% so far in May, supported by a rebound in equities, a resurgent Bitcoin near all-time highs, and a stabilizing U.S. dollar—signs of improving market sentiment. That said, we remain cautious, as volatility could return. We plan to gradually increase risk exposure as more attractive entry points emerge. Our current allocation, targeting 7% annualized volatility—well below equity market levels—positions us to aim for a 5–7% return by year-end. Our main concern now lies with the U.S. dollar, but with the certainty that an ordering fall of the greenback should be overall good for US equities.
Thank you for your trust.
Nuno Serafim
Month Report PGI - April 2025
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Nuno Serafim
Managing Partner
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Nuno is an experienced financial executive with broad experience in the Asset Management industry, being board member of IMGA, where he served as Chief investment Officer, overseeing €3.4B of AuM before he founded 3 Comma Capital, together with Robert and Patrick Hable in 2022.
